First Time Home Buyers across the country have become extremely frustrated by the "lack of inventory" of bank owned homes.
The news reports hundreds of thousands of bank owned homes but the reality has First Time Home Buyers bidding against ten to twenty other FTHBs for each foreclosed home.
It appears the "shadow inventory" is lurking again and next year may see a significant increase in bank owned homes which should help calm the feeding frenzy.
Shadow inventory lurking in foreclosures
Diana Olick has some thoughts about foreclosures after noticing that the Treasury's Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) status report this morning omitted information on how many of the 650,000 borrowers are keeping up with the payments on their trial modifications.
She cites Lender Processing Services, which is a huge mortgage data aggregate, and suggests the news is not good: "LPS' October Mortgage Monitor also cites large "shadow" foreclosure and REO inventories. The number of loans deteriorating further into delinquent status is now more than twice the number of foreclosure starts, indicating another major wave of troubled loans in an already clogged loan pipeline.
Nearly one-third of foreclosures remain in pre-sale status after 12 months - twice as many as the year prior. The six-month average deterioration ratio has risen the past two months to 300 percent, showing that for every loan that improves in status, three more deteriorate further."
She also cites Howard Glaser, an expert on the expanding subprime lending crisis: "What I am most worried about is March and April of next year.
What happens to a housing market that seems like it is finding its footing at that point? Because several things will happen simultaneously:
You've got the option ARM resets beginning to kick in, you have the home buyer tax credit expiring, maybe for real that time, and you have the Federal Reserve maybe running out of money to buy mortgage-backed securities. If we add on top of that, banks beginning to release some of this inventory,which they have been holding on to for a long time, those three items are potentially very destabilizing to the marketplace."
What does it all mean? Of course time will tell, but it seems likely there will be a increase in inventory at the beginning of the year and a rush of First Time Home Buyers looking to close before the $8000 tax credit expires.
First Time Home Buyers should not overlook the fact that
"the Federal Reserve maybe running out of money to buy mortgage-backed securities." The Fed's purchase of mortgage backed securities has stabilized that market and kept rates at historic levels this year. If they get out of the market, rates will undoubtedly increase, which would negate the savings you might get from waiting to buy your first home at a lower price!
Greg Cook
First Time Home Buyers Network
phone: 951-265-4532
fax: 951-848-9419
email:
greg@homebuyerhelpnetwork.comblog:
http://firsttimehome.us:
Posted via email from Greg's posterous